November: very strong month for GSF in the wake of rotation against value stocks

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The result of the US election and the news of a covid-19 vaccine was what affected the market in November. It was a smoother election than expected, but now it is clear that Biden will lead the United States for the next four years, although it looks like without a majority in the Senate. It was a very strong month for the Global Security Fund, which was up 8.9 percent and 9.0 percent, respectively, for the share classes R and S.

What one will remember from the year 2020 from an investment perspective is the gap between so-called value shares and growth shares, which today is close to a historical record. It is as if a lack of economic growth leads to a multiplication effect, or premium, of the share price of companies that show a potential growth. During the month of November, the market acted on the news of a covid-19 vaccine by narrowing the gap between growth and value stocks. A vaccine, and economic recovery, combined with the enormous support we have received from the central banks during the year could lead to higher long-term interest rates and it is this combination that could affect the companies' revaluations. Although this argument has been going on for some time, it is still an early stage and of the companies that recovered the most in November, it was the companies whose shares were under the greatest pressure during the year.

We wrote about Boeing in October that given the size of the company's defense production and revenues relative to the valuations, the company should be considered cheap. The fund increased its holding in the company and benefited from the share price rising above 40 percent. The increase affected the fund's return by 1.4 percent. As a confirmation that the positive price development for the growth segment is far from over, Crowdstrike was one of the fund's best performing equities. The cybersecurity company that has been mentioned in almost every monthly letter due to the enormous price development was up again in November by 19.3 percent. The company was also the holding that contributed the most to the positive development and affected the return by 1.6 percent.

While most companies have already reported for the third quarter, the American security company Leidos was one of the companies that reported in November. The company's share price had a weak development during the year when covid-19 had a somewhat negative impact on the company, but the company reported significantly better sales revenues and earnings. With an order backlog of approximately 3x annual sales revenue, the company is well positioned for next year. Defense technology company Harris Technologies was up more than 15 percent for the month, which had a positive effect on the fund by 1.3 percent, while the IT company in security, Mantech International, was up over 14.4 percent after they reported stronger sales revenues than expected and stronger adjusted earnings per share .

Palo Alto Networks, one of the portfolio's most recent additions, was one of the few companies to report for the month, beating expected earnings and adjusted earnings per share. The company has aggressive growth prospects and high expectations, but as one of the major players in a strong sector, there are good arguments for growth support.

NortonLifeLock was another company that reported in November and despite the company beating sales expectations, the price was down 14 percent. Weaker growth expectations in the coming years have had a negative impact on the share price. The company was the fund's worst performing holding. The traditional defense and space companies Northrop Grumman and Lockheed Martin were both up for the month, but weaker than expected given the strong market. It is the companies' low growth expectations for next year that are now dampening price developments. Historically, these companies have been conservative and we believe the same is true even now and that both companies will beat expectations.

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